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Industry Report:

Flattening the Curve: When do we dip below the 5% line?

Team 09th DECEMBER 2021

There have been a total 354,924 reported Covid-19 cases in Clark County, Nevada with a daily 7-day average of 419 cases, to date. The famous tour destination: Vegas, was initially hit with a drastic drop in visitors in April 2020 with only 106,900 compared to 3,545,100 at the beginning of the year. They managed to rejuvenate to 3,390,200 visitors by October 2021.

The World Health Organization (WHO) states that if a region’s transmission rates fall below their recommended 5% safety threshold, that region would be able to loosen their preventive restrictions. It was within our interest to determine when Clark County can bounce back to the pre-COVID19 ways, i.e. drop below the 5% threshold.

We applied machine learning algorithms to predict Nevada’s test positivity rates - an important deciding factor that identifies if an area falls into a low, moderate, or high transmission zone. After performing five regression models, we concluded that the Random Forest Regressor performed the best with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.587 and a R-squared value of 95.1%.
(Read white paper for full methodology and results)

Las Vegas Blog

Figure 1: Nevada Transmission Rates calculated as percentages with predictions

The results show that the transmission rates of Nevada, which are currently at 7.3%, will not fall below the 5% safety threshold by the end of January 2022. However, further predictions through our Gradient Boosting Regressor show a steady drop below the 5% mark during the month of June 2022.

Read full-text PDF


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